Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Dec 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 835 (N19E64) is the most likely source of C-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Dec 091
• Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 012/014
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 008/010-005/007-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01