Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Dec 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Dec 10 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only a few small and
simple sunspot groups populate the visible disk and no activity of
note was observed. New Region 711 (N13W20) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. A CME associated
with a long duration C2 flare and filament eruption on 08 December
is expected to create occasional storm periods on 11 and 12
December. A return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels is
expected on 13 December.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

• IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
• Observed 10 Dec 085
• Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 085/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 007/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 008/011
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 020/020-030/030-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/35/20
• Minor storm 15/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/40/30
• Minor storm 20/20/05
• Major-severe storm 10/10/01