Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Dec 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
December 10, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Dec 10 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only a few small and
simple sunspot groups populate the visible disk and no activity of
note was observed. New Region 711 (N13W20) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. A CME associated
with a long duration C2 flare and filament eruption on 08 December
is expected to create occasional storm periods on 11 and 12
December. A return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels is
expected on 13 December.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

  • IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  • Observed 10 Dec 085
  • Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 085/090/090
  • 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 007/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 008/011
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 020/020-030/030-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/35/20
  • Minor storm 15/15/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/40/30
  • Minor storm 20/20/05
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/01

SpaceRef staff editor.