Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Dec 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Dec 10 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity continued very low. Only B-class events
occurred. Two new regions rotated onto the disk. Region 520 (N03E75)
is the apparent return of old Region 501, the producer of 11 M-class
flares last rotation. New Region 521 (S11E82) is a mature group with
penumbra on both the leader and follower spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. The ongoing high-speed solar wind stream reached
850 km/s (currently near 800 km/s) and remains strong and steady.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 72
hours. This is a continuing response to the high speed solar wind
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 10 Dec 089
- Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 090/090/095
- 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 017/031
- Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 030/040
- Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 025/035-025/035-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/50
- Minor storm 35/35/20
- Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/40
- Minor storm 45/45/50
- Major-severe storm 15/15/10