Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 10, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 10 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity continued very low. Only B-class events
occurred. Two new regions rotated onto the disk. Region 520 (N03E75)
is the apparent return of old Region 501, the producer of 11 M-class
flares last rotation. New Region 521 (S11E82) is a mature group with
penumbra on both the leader and follower spots.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. The ongoing high-speed solar wind stream reached
850 km/s (currently near 800 km/s) and remains strong and steady.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 72
hours. This is a continuing response to the high speed solar wind

III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 10 Dec 089
  • Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 090/090/095
  • 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 017/031
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 030/040
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 025/035-025/035-020/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/50
  • Minor storm 35/35/20
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/40
  • Minor storm 45/45/50
  • Major-severe storm 15/15/10

SpaceRef staff editor.