Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Dec 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. An M1 x-ray flare occurred
at 10/1226 UTC. An optical flare report for this flare was not
received. Region 220 (S12E33) is the largest group on the disk.
Other disk regions are relatively small and simple.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 220 is the most likely source of M-class
activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 161
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec  160/165/170
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  003/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  005/008-005/008-005/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01