Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 August 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Two C-class events were
observed from Region 1542 (S16E24); the largest was a C4/Sf at
10/0416Z. Region 1544 (S29W20) also produced a C2/Sf flare at
10/1740Z. Region 1543 (N21E33) was the largest region on the disk
and produced some B-class events during the period. The remaining
regions were quiet and stable, with no significant changes since
yesterday. No earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event from Region 1542.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft remained near 350 km/s and the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly neutral.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance
for an isolated active period for days 1 and 2 (11-12 August). This
elevated activity is expected in response to the arrival of a
corotating interaction region and coronal hole, coupled with two
filaments that lifted off on 07 and 08 August. On day 3 (13 August)
conditions are expected to return to quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 125
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 008/008-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 25/25/05