Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 August 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Three B-class flares were
observed during the period, including a long-duration B8 flare at
10/1701Z from new Region 1097 (N33E71). Region 1096 (N21W33) showed
an increase in spot count as well as areal coverage, and was
classified as a Cri group with a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for a C-class flare from Region 1096.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period
possible, on day one (11 August) due to effects of the full-halo CME
observed on 07 August. Quiet levels are expected on days two and
three (12-13 August.)
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 084
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 084/084/085
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01