Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 966 (S06W20) produced no significant flares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. A recurrent coronal hole became geoeffective at approximately 10/1400Z. The solar wind speed at ACE rose from 225 km/s and reached 560 km/s by forecast time. The 2 MeV electron flux measured at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active. Minor storms are possible at high latitudes. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to end during the latter half of 11 August as the recurrent coronal hole rotates away from a geoeffective position. Quiet conditions are anticipated on 12 and 13 August.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 10 Aug 068
- Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 002/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 012/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/015-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/10/10
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/15/10
- Minor storm 20/05/05
- Major-severe storm 10/01/01