Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Aug 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
August 10, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Aug 2006
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S13E63) produced a C4 flare at 10/1808 UTC. This region is a particularly hot and complex region for this point in the solar cycle. It continues to be in a growth phase and has caused an increase in x-ray background levels.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a possibility of M-class activity from Region 904.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug

  • Class M 30/35/40
  • Class X 05/05/10
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 10 Aug 080
  • Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 080/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 009/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 005/005-005/005-003/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/10
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.