Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Aug 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Aug 10 2203 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity
was observed in the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The minor
storm conditions followed a period of sustained southward Bz (varied
between -4 to -9 nT) and a slight increase in solar wind speed
(around 468 km/s). This activity appears to be associated with a
transient flow in the solar wind. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods possible.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Aug 076
• Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 095

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 008/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 015/028
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 008/010-008/008-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/30
• Minor storm 10/10/15
• Major-severe storm 05/01/05