Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Apr 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
April 10, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Apr 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Apr 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 870 (S08E21) produced a B8 flare at 10/1934Z. New Region 871 (S08E52) was also numbered today. A CME observed off the west limb at 09/2230Z is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The high speed solar wind stream that began late on 08 April remains in effect. Solar wind speed is at 600 km/s, but is in decline. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on 11 April.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 10 Apr 089
  • Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 085/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 10 Apr 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 027/039
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 015/025
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 010/020-005/010-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/20/20
  • Minor storm 15/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.