Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Apr 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
April 10, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Apr 10 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted
of occasional B-class flares. Most of these were from Region 751
(S07W84). However, SXI images indicate a small, bright active region
on the east limb at N01 which was the source for a B8 event at 1814

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event during
the next 3 days (11-13 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet until sometime late on 11 April when conditions
are expected to increase to mostly active levels due to a coronal
hole. Active conditions from the coronal hole are expected to
continue for 12-13 April.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 10 Apr 088
  • Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 085/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 10 Apr 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 002/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 002/004
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 010/015-020/025-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr

  • A. Middle Latitudes
  • Active 20/30/30
  • Minor storm 10/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/35/35
  • Minor storm 15/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 10/20/20

SpaceRef staff editor.