Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Apr 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Apr 10 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted
of occasional B-class flares. Most of these were from Region 751
(S07W84). However, SXI images indicate a small, bright active region
on the east limb at N01 which was the source for a B8 event at 1814
UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event during
the next 3 days (11-13 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet until sometime late on 11 April when conditions
are expected to increase to mostly active levels due to a coronal
hole. Active conditions from the coronal hole are expected to
continue for 12-13 April.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 10 Apr 088
- Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 085/085/085
- 90 Day Mean 10 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 002/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 002/004
- Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 010/015-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
- A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/30/30
- Minor storm 10/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/10/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/35/35
- Minor storm 15/25/25
- Major-severe storm 10/20/20
