Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 Sep 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C6.7 flare at 01/0933 UTC.  Region 95
(N08E38) has simplified to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration,
losing the delta configuration in the trailing spot.  The
intermediate spots still show some signs of mixing polarities. 
Region 87 (S08W61) now has a simple beta magnetic configuration and
has decreased in area and spot count.  Three new regions were
numbered today:  Region 99 (S03E27), Region 100 (S20E67), and Region
101 (N03E71).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 95 has the potential for M-class activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with one
three-hour period of isolated active conditions at 01/0300 UTC.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    60/60/50
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 181
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep  175/175/170
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 169

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  007/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01