Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1110 (N20W71)
produced a long duration, B5/Sf event at 01/1001Z. Region 1110 has
decreased in areal coverage and extent and is now an A-type group.
Region 1109 (N21W51) has shown little change during the past 24
hours and remains a D-type group with a beta magnetic configuration.
Region 1111 (N20E30) has increased in extent and is now a B-type
group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (02-04
October).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 087
Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 087/084/081
90 Day Mean 01 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01