Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1027 (N24W89)
produced a B7 flare at 01/0255Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind data indicate a
continued influence from a weak coronal hole high speed stream.
Average solar wind velocities are around 350 km/s, with low density
and Bz fluctuations from +/- 6 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (02-04
October) as the high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 072
Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 070/070/069
90 Day Mean 01 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01