Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C1 flare was observed at
01/0443Z from Region 1117 (N22, L=063) as it rotated around the west
limb. Region 1120 (N39E41) has been quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low on day one (02 November). Very low conditions are
expected on days two and three (03 – 04 November) as Region 1117
rotates off the solar disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance
for active conditions during the next three days (02 – 04 November).
The increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M 15/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 079
Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 01 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 007/008-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01