Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 May 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 May 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only low level B-class flares were observed. Region 953 (S12W04) has decreased in area to around 440 millionths and has weakened to a beta-gamma magnetic class.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an M-flare from Region 953.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. An isolated active period was observed at the Boulder Magnetometer between 01/0600 – 0900 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the forecast period (02 – 04 May).

III. Event Probabilities 02 May-04 May

• Class M 10/10/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 May 086
• Predicted 02 May-04 May 085/085/080
• 90 Day Mean 01 May 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 013/020
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01