Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 March 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Occasional C-class x-ray
flares occurred throughout the period, the largest of which was a
C6/Sf at 01/0413Z from Region 1164 (N25E19). This region grew in
size and magnetic complexity, ending the period as an Ekc type with
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics. The remaining regions
were quiescent.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low,
with an increasing chance for an M-class x-ray flare from Region
1164.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm activity
levels during the period. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft
began to rise from 310 km/s at approximately 01/0500Z and ended the
period near 500 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field turned south coincident with the increase in solar
wind speed, temperature, and density. These events suggest the
arrival of a corotating interaction region between 01/05-12Z in
advance of a coronal hole high speed stream. Bz averaged -10 nT
for several hours, bringing two periods of minor storm levels at
middle latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for active
conditions over the next three days (2-4 March). A slight chance
for isolated minor storm periods exists on days one and two (2-3
March).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 111
Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 01 Mar 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 015/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/30
Minor storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05