Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S22E14) produced
three C-class events, the largest was a C4/1f at 01/1708Z. This
region is a Csi type group with a beta magnetic classification and
has decayed in both sunspot count and white light aerial coverage.
Region 1227 (S19E26) has also shown signs of decay in white light
areal coverage, but retains its D-type group and beta-gamma magnetic
classification. Region 1228 (N17E31) produced a C2/Sf at 01/0253Z.
Region 1231 (N09E68) was numbered early in the period. The STEREO
COR2 imagery observed a CME around 01/0609Z and another around
06/2009Z. Further analysis will be performed as LASCO imagery
updates to determine if these will be Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An increase in activity
was observed on the Boulder magnetometer around 01/0800Z. This
activity may have been due to the CME observed on 29 May. There
were no observations available from the ACE spacecraft from
01/0028Z to 01/0771Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active
levels for the next three days (02-04 June). Activity is expected
due to continued coronal hole high speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 114
Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 01 Jun 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 007/010-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/10