Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 June 2007

By SpaceRef Editor
June 2, 2007
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 June 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. New Region 960 (S06E73) was responsible for two M-class flares during the past 24 hours. An M1 x-ray flare occurred at 01/0651Z and an M2/Sf event occurred at 01/1459Z. A Tenflare of 100 sfu was associated with the M2 event. This region remains too close to the east solar limb to ascertain a complete magnetic analysis. Region 958 (S13E22) developed several sunspots during the period and is now classified a Bxo beta magnetic sunspot group. Region 959 (S12E49) contains two small umbra and was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 960 is likely to produce further M-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 02 June. Active conditions are expected on 03 and 04 June due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun

  • Class M 60/60/60
  • Class X 10/10/10
  • Proton 05/10/10
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 01 Jun 079
  • Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 085/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 002/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 003/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 003/005-010/015-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/25/25
  • Minor storm 01/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/30/30
  • Minor storm 05/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.