Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 July 2012 – Corrected Copy

By SpaceRef Editor
July 1, 2012
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 01 2237 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2012
::::::::::Corrected Copy::::::::::
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N16E03)
produced an M2/Sb at 01/1918Z. The region did not show any
significant growth or decay during the period. Region 1515 (S17E17)
continued to grow in areal coverage and is now 850 millionths. New
Region 1517 (N19E26) was numbered overnight.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with isolated M-class flares likely for the next three days (02-04 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Minor
storm periods were observed at high latitudes along with an isolated
major storm period from 01/0900-1200Z. Solar wind speeds were steady
at approximately 650 km/s with a total field strength of 5 nT
throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active storm
periods on days one and two (02-03 July) due to continued CH HSS
effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (04
July) as effects from the CH HSS begin to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 133
Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 01 Jul 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 021/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 013/018-013/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/10
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 35/35/15

SpaceRef staff editor.