Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 July 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
July 2, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low throughout the forecast period (02-04 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled with an isolated active
period from 03-06Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods at high latitudes on days 1 and 2 (02-03 July) due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected on day 3 (04 July) as the effects from the coronal hole
high speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 073
Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 072/072/074
90 Day Mean 01 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 015/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 010/012-008/010-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.