Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 Jul 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jul 01 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Just two small decaying
sunspot groups populate the visible disk. No significant activity
was observed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with occasional active
periods. This weak disturbance is due to a high speed coronal hole
stream. The solar wind speed remains elevated at over 500 km/s, but
is in decline. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 02 – 03 July as the high speed coronal hole stream
subsides.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Jul 081
• Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 080/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
O

• bserved Afr/Ap 30 Jun 008/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 010/012-010/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01