Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 Jul 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jul 01 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Minor C-class flares were
observed throughout the period. Region 19 (S18E50) now exceeds 600
millionths of white light area with a magnetic delta configuration.
Despite its obvious complexity, this region was relatively quiet.
Region 17 (S19W37) is in a slow growth phase and is developing some
mixing. Another impressive coronal mass ejection was observed off
the SE limb today associated with a prominence eruption at 01/1300Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 17 and 19 both have potential for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated minor storm
periods were observed at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels with isolated minor
storm conditions at high latitudes. These disturbed conditions are
likely to subside by day three.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 147
Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 01 Jul 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 012/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor storm 20/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
