Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. One C3/Sf flare was observed
at 01/0734Z from Region 1389 (S22E17). This region diminished in
spot count and magnetic complexity over the past 24 hours. The
remaining regions were stable. The 10cm solar flux was estimated.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three days
(01-03 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Hourly averages of solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft were about 360 km/s while Bz was near -2 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mostly quiet with a slight chance for unsettled
conditions for the next three days (02-04 January).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 130
Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 01 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 000/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/10