Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Occasional
low-level B-class flares occurred, most of which were produced by
Region 1140 (N32E52). Region 1140 showed no significant changes and
remained an H-type group with an alpha magnetic configuration. New
Regions 1141 (N35W25) and 1142 (S14E33) were numbered. Both were
D-type groups with beta magnetic configurations.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period (02 – 04 January) with a chance for
isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Note: Today’s 10 cm flux value was
estimated.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (02 – 04 January).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 091
Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 092/090/090
90 Day Mean 01 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01