Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 Jan 2007

By SpaceRef Editor
January 1, 2007
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted of a few low level B-class flares from Region 933 (S05E52), which retains its magnetic beta spot group classification. Region 934 (N03E51) was numbered yesterday and is classified as a magnetic alpha spot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active conditions. The solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated at approximately 470 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm conditions for the next three days (02-04 January) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Isolated periods of major storm conditions are possible at high latitudes on 02 and 03 January.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 01 Jan 087
  • Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 090/095/095
  • 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 001/000
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 008/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 015/025-015/025-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/20
  • Minor storm 15/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/30
  • Minor storm 20/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.