Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 Jan 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An 8 nT sudden impulse was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 01/1406 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Jan 087
• Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 009/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 006/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 008/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/15/15
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01