Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 Jan 2003

SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low during the past 24
hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes attained high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase
in geomagnetic activity is expected on the second and third days,
with expected levels being unsettled to slightly active. The
enhanced activity is predicted as a response to effects from a
favorably positioned coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Jan 115
• Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 115/115/120
• 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 165

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 007/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 010/010-015/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/45/35
• Minor storm 10/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/10/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/35/30
• Minor storm 10/25/25
• Major-severe storm 05/15/10