Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 February 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N07W79) produced a
C1 x-ray flare at 01/0441Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (02-04 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (02 February). Activity will increase
to quiet to unsettled on days 2-3 (03-04 February) as the result of
anticipated CH HSS effects.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 118
Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 01 Feb 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 000/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 005/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01