Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 Feb 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Feb 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft indicated signatures consistent with a co rotating interaction region around 31/0900Z. This was followed by a coronal hole high speed stream commencing around 31/21Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated periods of active conditions due to the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Feb 071
• Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 008/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 008/010-010/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/15
• Minor storm 10/15/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/20
• Minor storm 15/20/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05