Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 01 2301 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::::
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C3
flare from Region 1356 (N17W76) at 30/2232Z. Two coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 30/2112Z.
The events appear to originate from filament eruptions. The first
off the east limb beginning at 30/1922Z and the second near the west
limb beginning at 30/2046Z in SDO/AIA 171 imagery. We are currently
waiting on model runs to determine the possibility of a glancing
blow from these events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day 1 (02 December)
with M-class flare probabilities increasing to a chance for days
2-3 (03-04 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with active to minor
storm periods observed at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue to be quiet to unsettled. There is still a
possibility for activity from a southern polar extent coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M 20/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 155
Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 145/140/140
90 Day Mean 01 Dec 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 007/008-007/008-006/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 08/08/05
Minor storm 02/02/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 15/16/13
Major-severe storm 08/11/07