Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 August 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1528 (N17W56), 1532
(S19W14), 1535 (N18E37), 1536 (S22W01), and 1538 (S22E54) all
produced low level C-class flares. Region 1536 is the most
magnetically complex group on the visible disk with a weak
Beta-gamma configuration. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed during the reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on day 1 (02 August) due to effects from the 28 July CME.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (03 August).
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (04 August).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 150
Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 155/155/150
90 Day Mean 01 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 008/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 30/20/05