Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 August 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1092
(N13E21) produced a long-duration C3/Sf flare at 01/0826Z. The flare
was associated with a Type IV radio sweep, an 890 sfu Tenflare, and
an Earth-directed full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). A
disappearing filament (DSF) occurred during 01/0750 – 0811Z,
centered near N37W32 and time coincident with the C3 flare. The DSF
was associated with an Earth-directed partial-halo CME. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1092.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during most of day 1 (02 August). An
increase to unsettled to active levels is expected late on day 1 due
to the arrival of the full-halo CME observed on 01 August. Activity
is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm levels on day 2 (03 August) as CME effects persist.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels with a
chance for active levels on day 3 (04 August) as CME effects
subside.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 080
Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 080/080/082
90 Day Mean 01 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 007/008-018/018-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/30
Minor storm 05/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/45/35
Minor storm 10/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/15/10