Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Sep 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Sep 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. The solar disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (10 September). Quiet conditions are expected for days two and three (11-12 September).

III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Sep 067
• Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 09 Sep 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 009/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01