Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-class event possible.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 10 September. Quiet to unsettled conditions are possible on 12-13 September due to a coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Sep 086
• Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 09 Sep 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 004/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 005/005-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/20
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01