Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Sep 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
September 9, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Sep 09 2322 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity increased to very high levels. Region
808 (S09E54) continues to be very active and produced five major
flares today. Major flare activity is listed in chronological
order: an X5/2b event at 08/2106Z, an X1 at 09/0300Z, an M6/1f at
09/0548Z, an X3 at 09/0959Z, and a long duration X6/2b at 09/2004Z
which had associated Type IV and Type II (estimated shock velocity
of 959 km/sec) radio sweeps. Region 808 is an extremely complex
and compact spot group exceeding 1400 millionths of white light
area. Magnetic analysis clearly depicts a very strong
beta-gamma-delta configuration. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
high to very high levels. Region 808 will continue to produce major
flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels today.
The CME associated with the X17 event on 07 September was observed
at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 09/1315Z. This was followed
by a 30 nT sudden impulse at the Boulder magnetometer at 09/1359Z.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 08/0215Z was
further enhanced today. The current peak flux is 465 pfu which
occurred at 09/2000Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that
began at 08/0405Z was also further enhanced today and was just under
8 pfu at 09/1920Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Isolated
minor storm conditions are expected on 10 September due to ongoing
transient flow. CME activity associated with today’s flares is
expected to become geoeffective on 11 September and produce active
to minor storm levels with isolated major storm periods possible.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is
expected to continue through the next three days. The greater
than 100 MeV proton event now in progress is expected to continue
through 11 September. Today’s X6/2b flare may enhance the existing
proton events.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep

  • Class M 90/90/90
  • Class X 75/75/75
  • Proton 99/99/99
  • PCAF in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 09 Sep 099
  • Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 100/100/105
  • 90 Day Mean 09 Sep 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 005/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 012/025
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 015/020-020/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/40/35
  • Minor storm 15/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/15/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/45/40
  • Minor storm 20/35/20
  • Major-severe storm 15/20/15

SpaceRef staff editor.