Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Sep 2004

Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Sep 09 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Newly numbered Region 672
(N05E73) produced two C class flares, a C1.2 at 2222 UTC, and a long
duration C3.2, with a maximum at 0601 UTC. A limb CME was
associated with the C3.2 event, but was not Earth directed. Region
671 (S09W68) produced a B9.3 flare at 1800 UTC, and continues to
grow.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a chance for an isolated M class flare, particularly
from Region 672.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (10-12
September).

III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep

• Class M 20/20/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Sep 131
• Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 135/140/140
• 90 Day Mean 09 Sep 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 004/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 005/005-005/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 10/10/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/30
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05