Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Oct 2008

By SpaceRef Editor
October 9, 2008
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for 10-11 October. Unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm levels at high latitudes are expected for 12 October due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 09 Oct 069
  • Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 068/068/068
  • 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 002/002
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 002/002
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 005/005-005/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 05/05/30
  • Minor storm 01/01/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/40
  • Minor storm 01/01/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.