Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Oct 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for 10-11 October. Unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm levels at high latitudes are expected for 12 October due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 09 Oct 069
- Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 068/068/068
- 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 002/002
- Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 002/002
- Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 005/005-005/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 05/05/30
- Minor storm 01/01/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 10/10/40
- Minor storm 01/01/20
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05