Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Oct 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Oct 09 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A string of minor
B-class activity has occurred over the last 24 hours emanating from
Region 680 (N15W90).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 12 Oct.
Beginning on 11 Oct, there is a slight chance for isolated active
levels due to the effects of a recurrent high-speed solar wind
stream.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct

• Class M 05/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Oct 088
• Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 090/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 004/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 005/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 005/007-010/012-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/35/35
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 15/20/25
• Major-severe storm 05/05/10