Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Oct 2003

SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
flare was an optically uncorrelated B8 at 1510Z. Region 471
(S08W44) decreased in area coverage and has simplified to a beta
magnetic configuration. Region 478 (N10W06) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 471 has the potential for C-class
flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels with one
period of isolated active conditions during local night time hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomanetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Oct 111
• Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 105/105/100
• 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 006/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 006/010-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01