Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Nov 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The solar disk was void of spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. Activity levels were initially quiet but increased to active levels from 0000-0600Z, then declined to unsettled levels from 0600-1200Z, and were quiet for the remainder of the interval. Solar wind observations at ACE indicate a gradual decline in solar wind velocity (day-end values were around 450 km/s) as the high-speed stream rotates out of geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (10-12 November).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 09 Nov 068
- Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 068/068/068
- 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 011/014
- Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 012/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/05/05
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/05/05
- Minor storm 05/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01