Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 923 (S06E58) produced several B-class flares over the past 24 hours. Region 921 (S06W78) is in decay and has not produced any activity today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There remains a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 923.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed has been steadily increasing throughout the day as the recurrent coronal hole moves into geoeffective position, reaching approximately 400 km/s at time of issue. The IMF strength also increased to approximately 20 nT, and the Bz component varied between +/- 10 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor storm periods on 10 November due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 11-12 November.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Nov 089
• Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 090/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 000/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 010/020-007/010-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/25/20
• Minor storm 25/11/11
• Major-severe storm 10/05/05