Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Nov 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Nov 09 2257 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 820 (S16W81) produced a C1 flare at 09/0301 UTC. A erupting solar filament was observed on EIT imagery between 09/1948 UTC and 09/2148 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 820. Region 820 is due to rotate off the visible disk by 10 November.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 10 November. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 11 November due to a coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position. On 12 November, mostly unsettled conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov

• Class M 05/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Nov 078
• Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 008/010-010/020-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/35/25
• Minor storm 10/20/10
• Major-severe storm 01/10/01