Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 May 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 09 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Two new regions were
numbered today: Region 607 (S11E00) and Region 608 (S04E68).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic fields is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 May 093
• Predicted 10 May-12 May 095/095/090
• 90 Day Mean 09 May 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 007/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 010/015-010/015-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/25
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01