Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 May 2003
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There was one C-class event
during the past 24 hours, a C3 at 0048 UTC from behind the west limb
at about S15 (Region 349). New Region 356 (N15E63) was assigned
today and is a small D-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels from the
beginning of the period through about 09/1500 UTC. Since then
conditions have been predominantly unsettled. Solar wind
observations show persistence of high speed solar wind (750-900
km/s) and weak to moderate oscillations in Bz for most of the day.
However, there did appear to be a slight decline in speed beginning
after 1830 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes continue to
be at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days due to
persistence. An increase to mostly active is expected on the third
day as yet another coronal hole will be rotating into favorable
position at that time.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May
- Class M 15/10/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 09 May 097
- Predicted 10 May-12 May 100/100/105
- 90 Day Mean 09 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 022/030
- Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 020/036
- Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 015/020-015/020-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/40
- Minor storm 15/15/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/40
- Minor storm 20/20/25
- Major-severe storm 10/10/20
