Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Mar 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Mar 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. There were no reported flares during the period. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on 10 and 11 March. Active to isolated minor storm conditions can be expected on 12 March due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Mar 072
• Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 09 Mar 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 003/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 004/005-006/007-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 01/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/30
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10