Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Mar 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Mar 09 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar Activity was low. A C1.8 flare occurred from
Region 741 (N12E03) at 09/0241Z. Region 742 (S06E43) has grown from
80 to 170 millionths in area. New Region 743 (S09E76) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed at
ACE remained elevated between 650 km/s and 750 km/s during the
reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on 10 March. Conditions are
expected to abate to quiet to unsettled levels on 11 and 12 March.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
- Class M 10/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 09 Mar 100
- Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 105/110/110
- 90 Day Mean 09 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 017/026
- Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 012/016
- Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 008/012-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
