Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 9, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 09 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 570 (S14E34) has
produced numerous B- and C-class flares, including a C1.3/Sf at
09/0648 UTC. No significant development was observed from regions
on the visible disk, and no new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 570 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels.
Increased activity is most likely due to the effects of a
co-rotating interaction region interacting with Earth’s magnetic
field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active, with occassional minor storm
conditions from the effects of high speed solar wind as a coronal
hole moves into geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar

  • Class M 25/25/25
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 09 Mar 109
  • Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 110/110/105
  • 90 Day Mean 09 Mar 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 002/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 010/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 015/020-015/020-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 40/40/40
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 50/50/50
  • Major-severe storm 15/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.