Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Mar 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Mar 09 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 570 (S14E34) has
produced numerous B- and C-class flares, including a C1.3/Sf at
09/0648 UTC. No significant development was observed from regions
on the visible disk, and no new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 570 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels.
Increased activity is most likely due to the effects of a
co-rotating interaction region interacting with Earth’s magnetic
field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active, with occassional minor storm
conditions from the effects of high speed solar wind as a coronal
hole moves into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
- Class M 25/25/25
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 09 Mar 109
- Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 110/110/105
- 90 Day Mean 09 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 002/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 010/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 015/020-015/020-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 40/40/40
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 50/50/50
- Major-severe storm 15/15/15
