Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Jun 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in the last 24 hours. Region 892 (S06W02) remains beta-gamma and appears stable. Region 893 (S02E24) appears stable and is slowly decaying.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind velocity remains elevated at approximately 550 km/s, but is not producing enhanced geomagnetic activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 3 days (10 – 12 June).

III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Jun 078
• Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 078/078/078
• 90 Day Mean 09 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 018/020
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 007/010-007/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05