Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Jun 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 09 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 775 (N08E08)
produced the largest event of the period which was a long duration
C1.5 x-ray flare that occurred at 09/1334Z. This region underwent
continued growth in sunspot area during the period with the eastern
most delta structure from yesterday becoming detached from the
dominant central spot. Although the delta structure to the south
remains well intact. Region 776 (S06E20) produced a C1 x-ray flare
that occurred at 09/1631Z and white light analysis showed minor
growth in sunspot area. Region 772 (S18W71) appears to have
continued to decay and was quiescent throughout the day. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar a activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 775 and 776 may both be capable of producing an
isolated low level M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Beginning late on 11 June, active conditions may occur due to the
arrival of the faint partial halo CME that was observed yesterday.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
- Class M 40/40/40
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 09 Jun 116
- Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 115/115/110
- 90 Day Mean 09 Jun 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 003/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 001/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 002/007-002/007-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/20
- Minor storm 01/01/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/15/20
- Minor storm 05/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
